|03-30-2007, 09:26 AM||#11|
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 15,352Rep Power: 64
Thanx 4 the info LHX, wasn't aware....
Chasing the flush draw....
The amateur's wet dream.
The answer to this question becomes skewed depending on what kind of game you are playing, and your willingness to gamble. The easiest and most straightforward answer is... When it's worth it. I'll explain.
The first thing you should do when deciding whether to gamble or not is ask yourself, "Is this a good gamble?" Are you willing to risk your entire bankroll on a tournament or cash game knowing that you have a 60% chance of failure? Essentially on the flop, those are your odds of hitting a flush before the river.(40%)
Also you should look at the board. Is there a pair on the board? If there is, you risk gambling on a situation in which you are already drawing dead, as a full house is a possibility. Also your percentage goes down in this situation as re-draw outs to better hands are possible. Another thing you should look at is your cards. Is the flush I'm drawing to too low? REMEMBER: just because you are drawing to a flush doesn't mean someone else isn't. You can draw to a 5 high flush only to find out someone was drawing higher. So if you are gonna draw to a flush, first try and pick high cards to do so.
So what is a good gamble? If we go by pot odds, then a good gamble is calling a bet a little less than half of the size of the pot. A bet 1/3 the size of the pot gives the exact correct odds to make a smart mathematical call. This goes for both the turn and river, since the odds of hitting a flush (about 20%) are almost the same. REMEMBER: If you call a bet on the flop and don't hit, you also will probably have to make another call on the turn to try and catch.
Implied Odds chasing.
This is what I like to call evil odds. There are barely any bets you cannot call to make this play justifiable. As long as your opponent bets less than %40 of his overall stack, you can call or come over the top all-in and the play is a good one. With implied odds you play on the amount you can win possibly if your card falls. With a bigstack, your goal is to take your opponents entire stack so you want to concentrate more on implied odds or big moves that take the entire stack in one instant.
example of implied odds
you have over 300,000 in an online tournament easily the overwhelming chip leader at the table and in the tourny.
You are dealt king jack of clubs.
blinds are at 300-600
you are in the big blind faced with a raise of 1200 more.
Your opponent has just over 31k
AC TC 4D
you flopped a gut-shot straight draw and a flush draw
you know any queen and any club other than the 4 of clubs makes you the nuts. this= 11 outs to the nuts and 1 more out to the flush
we'll calculate nut odds only. 11 x (2.25)<--(% of each out) = approx 25% x 2 streets = approximately 50% to hit the nuts.
with a pot of 3900, your opponent overbets the pot, a huge $10000 bet. Using pot odds, there is no way you can call that bet to try and catch your flush. However, with implied odds, you are calling 10000 to try and win 21000 more, not just what is in the pot. Calling here however is a mistake. With 2 cards to come, if a blank falls on the turn you may be forced to make a huge decision on the turn. Instead re-raise his 10000 all in and take your chances. Three things can happen.
1. he calls and you lose
2. he calls and you win
3. he folds and you take the pot right there
In 2 of these scenarios you win, and do so without significant risk to your stack. This is another reason why pushing is always better than calling.
Forgetting all about the odds for a second I can sum it up like this....
To chase a flush, call bets that are 1/3 the size of the pot or less.... this will give you the correct odds, and give you a positive mathematical expectation.
Conversely, in order to chase flush draws out or make them draw for the incorrect price, bet between 1/2 to 2 times the size of the pot on the turn and river.
coming tomorrow- thoughts on pot odds